Aug. 29th, 2008

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John McCain's announcement of his running mate forcibly reminded me of Robert Heinlein's story "Over The Rainbow-" In both the fiction and the reality, an ordinary enough politician unexpectedly picks a relatively inexperienced woman for the VP slot, most likely as an attention getting gimmick. The details differ, in the story she was a black actress whose first experience with politics was when the man who would later run for president with her had been Governor and had appointed her to a position, once again just as a publicity stunt.

The story starts the public realizing after just ten days with the new president in office that he was even worse than his opponent had said. However, he dies in the crash of his private plane leaving the highest office in the hands of someone that the national party had never intended to be there. This was Heinlein's hopeful view of the future, so she turns out to be a wonderful president due to three factors. She was uninterested in power and thus did not give a thought to how things might affect her re-electability, she knew she was inexperienced and so she became an expert at finding the proper experts to advise her, and came to embody change and hope to a degree that inspired others to follow in her path.

Governor Sarah Palin is already an elected official, which is the start of the major differences between the path of the story and the future I foresee. Her rise from freshman city councilor to governor over the course of just 14 years could be the result of constantly running interference from the next layer of government up, or it could be that she got a taste for power and wanted more of it. Most likely it was a mixture of the two.

More importantly, John McCain is very unlikely to simply "die" the way the fictional president did. An assassination would change the political landscape in a manner similar to what 9/11 did, and even if she didn't try and take advantage of the politics of fear other politicians would. A car crash or heart attack are both possible, but with modern medical technology he would most likely live long enough to stack things against her if he wasn't sure she would be the sort of president he wanted. Besides, there's just something wrong in electing someone in the hope that they die.


Why is politics reminding me so forcefully of Heinlein lately? I really don't want to see an equivalent to Nehemiah Scudder on the ballot come 2012...

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